2025 US holiday shopping season: online sales growth slows, price logistics become key factors
According to Salesforce's latest forecast, online retail sales for this year's US holiday shopping season will continue to grow, but the growth rate will significantly slow down. With the rising cost of living and tightening consumer budgets, both sellers and platforms are facing new challenges and adjustments.Slowing growth, more cautious shopping
Salesforce predicts that online consumption in the United States will reach $288 billion from November 1 to December 31, 2025, a year-on-year increase of only 2.1%. Compared to the 4% growth in the same period last year, this forecast shows a significant cooling trend.
Consistent with research by Deloitte and PwC, economic uncertainty has led consumers to pay more attention to essential goods and price discounts, while spending on non essential items has further decreased.
Retailer attitude differentiation
Prior to the holiday shopping season, the expected performance of American retailers varies:
Wal Mart and Macy's raised their expectations, but their confidence remained;
Mattel has lowered its expectations due to concerns about weak consumer demand;
Target maintains its original expectations, neither sad nor happy.
At the same time, Amazon, Target and Wal Mart have launched a promotion war in advance:
Amazon will hold its second Prime Day of the year on October 7-8;
Target will start its promotion week on October 5th, with a large number of products priced below $20;
Wal Mart announced to cut the price of 500 kinds of toys.
Artificial intelligence empowers shopping
Despite the tightening of consumption, artificial intelligence is becoming a new driving force for e-commerce. Salesforce predicts that AI recommendations and intelligent shopping assistants will generate $51 billion in online sales, accounting for 18% of the total. This trend indicates that retailers and sellers need to increase their investment in digitalization and personalized experiences.
Inspiration for Cross border Sellers
For cross-border e-commerce, the holiday season in the US market remains one of the most important nodes of the year. But this year's trend shows:
Consumers are more sensitive to prices;
Delivery efficiency and logistics experience will directly affect transactions and repeat purchases;
Compliance and tax costs may also become key factors influencing profits.